By Sylene Argent, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Essex Free Press
Essex County Council approved a Housing Needs Assessment, in addition to receiving an update on the Regional Affordable Housing Strategy during the June 4 meeting.
County Administration has been working on developing a regional affordable housing strategy in partnership with the City of Windsor since the summer of 2021, David Sundin, Director of Legislative and Legal Services, explained.
SHS Consulting has been retained to complete that strategy.
One of the deliverables through this process was the creation of a Housing Needs Assessment. Sundin noted it is important to have such a document in place, as certain federal funding and opportunities require one.
Bahar Shadpour, Senior Manager of Housing Policy and Research for SHS Consulting, presented the Housing Needs Assessment, which provides a foundation for understanding of housing pressures in the County and will inform future directions for policy, investments, and planning.
Essentially, a Housing Needs Assessment is a tool for County Council and the community to use to understand who needs housing, what kind of housing is needed, and how much, Shadpour said.
A Housing Needs Assessment provides a systematic and quantified analysis of housing needs in the community, linking the housing supply with the need for housing. It uses census and market data, as well as insights from residents and stakeholders.
Key research questions asked include where does the greatest housing need exist in the community, how can a meaningful housing target be set, how can progress be measured to support the right kind of housing for all residents and how much housing is needed and at what size and price point.
The County “Must act quickly to meet the existing and future housing needs of its current and future populations,” Shadpour said of the high-level findings of the report.
Several key priorities are outlined in the report, she added, include increasing the supply of purpose-built rentals in the County. She said there is not enough rental housing in the community.
Another priority is ensuring housing is available across all income levels.
Current housing cost for households and future needs
“Almost 9000 households are spending more than 30% of their income on housing,” Shadpour said, adding that offering a broader mix of housing sizes and forms is needed as the existing stock is dominated by single-detached homes “that are not affordable to any moderate and low-income household.”
Through projections SHS Consulting completed through this study, Shadpour said it is estimated over 15,000 new units will be needed over the next decade, including a significant number of affordable and deeply affordable units.
During the forming of the Housing Needs Assessment, Matt Pipe, Manager of Housing Policy & Research, said SHS looked at three categories for housing indicators: housing demand, housing supply, and housing affordability.
This was applied at the county and local municipal level.
Eight emerging trends were identified through the Housing Needs Assessment. They included:
· Sustained population growth and aging population: The County’s population has grown and is anticipated to continue to grow according to projections, and the population is also steadily aging.
· Diversifying housing sizes and gradual shifts in tenure: One-person households remain most prominent, and renting has become more common. Two people and at least four people are the fastest growing.
· Continued migration to the region anticipated with economic growth: Windsor-Essex has long been a hub of migration from other areas of the province or internationally. That has continued over the years, impacting the economic vitality in housing conditions.
· Gaps in the supply of non-market housing: has left many low-income households with little options. Growing pressures for affordable housing has stressed the existing, insufficient stock.
· Historically homogenous housing stock: existing housing is mostly large, single-detached dwellings, which may limit choice for small households, seniors, and renters.
· Emerging growth in higher-density and rental development: Over the past few years, local municipalities have shifted to higher-density developments, and new housing has included apartments and rowhouses.
· Affordability challenges affecting low- and middle-income homesteads: While the County may remain more affordable than other parts of the province, housing costs have been rising significantly in recent years, creating unique housing pressures for the community. Low and moderate income earners, renters, lone parent families, and one person households face disproportionate housing challenges.
· Homeownership has become out of reach: This is true for many in the County, as prices to purchase a home continue to climb. Prices for newly constructed homes have increased to a price point that is only affordable for some of the top 10% incomes in the county.
A table outlining unaffordability SHS presented, based on a Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporations (CMHC) rental survey, noted that while a one-bedroom home may be considered affordable for some low-income households for rental, most municipalities have reported zero percent vacancy for these units in 2024, meaning access is very limited.
Other unit sizes are considered affordable for half of renters in the county, according to prices in the primary rental market (one bedroom $874 to three bedrooms $1650+). Prices seen in the secondary private market would be more expensive.
“Purchasing a home in the County of Essex is considered unaffordable for all households outside of those considered high-income,” Pipe said, adding even for those considered high-income, new housing supply is not considered affordable. Only some of the top 10% of the high-income households can afford new constructed homes in the county on average.
A data table provided notes that only high-income households with an income greater than $115,065 can afford resale homes of $645,800, and even this bracket cannot afford a new home averaged at $1,096,647.
Housing challenges to address
Pipe outlined the housing challenges to address include: the need for more purposeful rental housing, more affordable housing for a range of incomes, more diverse housing forms to match evolving household structures, more community housing, and greater support for those experiencing housing instability.
Knowing each of the seven local municipalities have unique housing needs, SHS created profiles for each to identify their greatest housing pressures and to support local planning and decision-making.
Needs for the Town of Essex specifically include the need for more purpose-built rental, diverse housing options, and community housing. The latter was a need highlighted for every municipality in the County of Essex.
SHS also created new housing benchmarks for the County and each local municipality that are anticipated to be needed by 2035. That was based on local population projections, and factoring in historical and emerging household trends.
Population projections
The data shows the County currently has 71,520 dwellings and 878 community units. That is projected to grow to 85,780 by 2035, showing a need of 17,360 homes. Home ownership is projected to be at 85%.
For the Town of Essex specifically, it noted there are currently 8,395 units (85% owned by owner), with 161 community units. It is projected to need to grow to 9,510 by 2035.
County Council comments
Essex Mayor Sherry Bondy said the information was interesting and was glad the County was starting to dig into the matter.
She asked if information from the City of Windsor and the Service Manager was collected to see how accurate the waitlist is for geared-to-income renters.
Bondy sits on the CMHC board and has asked for that data. She was previously told in 2024 there were around 9500 people on the waitlist for geared-to-income housing, and only 36 people got units. She wondered if that information was included in SHS’s data.
Shadpour noted that is the number SHS had for the Windsor-Essex region and would consider that for future, more regional studies. For the County, they used actual numbers for the County.
With the senior population growing at a faster rate, Amherstburg Mayor Michael Prue asked if it would be better to concentrate on senior housing or single-person housing, rather than multiple bedroom units. Doing so would be a win-win situation, he was told by SHS.
Tecumseh Mayor Gary McNamara spoke of how the region gets a lot of folks from the GTA who sold their home at a huge profit to move to this area, which artificially inflates the cost of homes in Windsor-Essex.
“It basically excludes a lot of the entry market and young folks that are here,” he said. “That creates a bit of, certainly, an issue for us.”
When looking to create density, McNamara noted there is a “not in my back yard” response, because of the single-family homes that have been predominant for the past few decades in the region.
“This Housing Needs Assessment is really here for the County to have evidence to understand what is needed, and the greatest need, and what the projections are in the future. So, that you can use this as data to be able to then create policy, see what your local municipal priorities are, and your resourcing in terms of what the next steps would be, that are right for your local communities,” Shadpour said, responding to a list of challenges McNamara outlined, including how to incentivize upper-levels of government to help with funding.
“And, really take this as a tool to then be able to make those very important decisions… in terms of building actual strategies that are long-term,” she added.
Kingsville Mayor Dennis Rogers commented that local municipal Councillors are being asked to make decisions with local tax dollars and their residents may not benefit from it. He said there has to be a program of stay in your own community when it comes to community housing.
In answering Tecumseh Deputy Mayor/Deputy County Warden, Joe Bachetti’s, question on what has caused the housing crisis in the past three-to-four years, SHS noted it is a complex issue. Its genesis started during the pandemic that disrupted supply chains, while Canada was facing constant population growth internally and through immigration. That caused the housing supply to fall behind the demand which pushed up prices.
In addition, when there were restrictions on movement due to COVID, individuals started to look at remote communities from larger urban centres with their big dollars to find more affordable accommodations, which drove up prices locally. People also found the ability to afford day-to-day costs challenging, which had some look into renting, where there was little supply.
Bachetti added he recently went to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) Conference, where immigration numbers to Canada were discussed.
According to Canada.ca, the federal government aims to welcome 395,000 permanent residents this year (a 21% decrease from 2024), 305,900 new students (a 10% decrease), and 367,750 new temporary workers (a 16% decrease). Bachetti spoke of how pre-COVID the number was in the 200,000 range.
He believes the federal government needs to be lobbied. He believes there will be programs and modular homes coming for single-family dwellings to make it more affordable. He is keeping fingers crossed to do that.
When it comes to investments, “those are my tax dollars. At the end of the day, you are asking me to tax for a problem that the federal government has – and again, for a lack of a better word – they caused this housing crisis. So, we got to work hand-in-hand. Yes, we will come to the table, but we also have to be realistic [about] who caused this housing crisis,” Bachetti continued.
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